And Netlist after that – implications for Netlist
Inphi will report results on July 25, 2012.
July 11, 2012, 8:01 a.m. EDT
Inphi to Report Second Quarter 2012 Financial Results on July 25
Since both Inphi and IDTI sell buffer chipsets for RDIMM memory modules, they should show sales for Romley.
LRDIMMs are only being sold by Inphi – the 16GB LRDIMMs should not show much volume, since they are non-viable vs. the 16GB RDIMMs (2-rank).
The 32GB LRDIMMs may have some volume – but this should be low, since the 32GB space is expected to be small – although ramping up by late 2012 and beyond.
32GB LRDIMMs are also expensive, and that may limit their use as well.
Therefore, Inphi’s LRDIMM revenue should primarily be from the 32GB LRDIMMs.
For a more detailed examination of LRDIMMs and Inphi:
July 5, 2012
What Inphi results suggest about Netlist
Netlist’s HyperCloud inhabits a slightly different market than LRDIMMs.
While Inphi is the sole maker of LRDIMMs currently, for LRDIMMs in general:
– 16GB LRDIMMs are non-viable
– only the 32GB LRDIMMs are sellable (but are inferior to 32GB HyperCloud – see below)
With Netlist HyperCloud:
– the 16GB HyperCloud is the best option available for 3 DPC use at 1.5V (i.e. delivers 1333MHz at 3 DPC)
– the 32GB HyperCloud dominates the 32GB space – trumping both LRDIMM, RDIMM varieties in performance, latency, price and IP issues
For a quick overview of the memory space, checkout:
Infographic – memory buying guide for Romley 2-socket servers
June 29, 2012
While Inphi 16GB LRDIMMs are non-viable, the Netlist 16GB HyperCloud are the memory module of choice for 3 DPC (i.e. fully memory loaded) use on the IBM x3650 M4 server and the HP DL360p and DL380p servers on which the HyperCloud is available.
Netlist has not announced the 32GB HyperCloud availability on IBM/HP servers yet (although it is expected mid-2012), so there should be no 32GB HyperCloud volume.
However, going forward, the Netlist 32GB HyperCloud will be the dominant memory module in the 32GB memory module segment for servers – it will trump both the LRDIMMs and RDIMMs on:
– IP issues
HyperCloud to own the 32GB market ?
July 9, 2012
Branding HyperCloud as a better RDIMM
In addition, Netlist should start branding their HyperCloud as a better RDIMM – because of it’s interoperability with RDIMMs – and to contrast the situation with LRDIMMs which are a “new standard” which is incompatible with RDIMMs (i.e. you cannot mix LRDIMMs and RDIMMs !).
While this may not be such an important distinction in practice – since you would seldom want to DILUTE the load reduction capability of HyperCloud by mixing in RDIMMs – however it becomes relevant if you consider the (remote) possibility of court injunction against LRDIMMs (for Inphi violation of Netlist IP) – in which case there will be NO replacement available for a faulty LRDIMM – as the remaining LRDIMMs CANNOT work with RDIMMs.
HyperCloud branding should suggest a better RDIMM
July 10, 2012
Netlist revenue forecast
For a review of the revenue trajectory for Netlist, check out:
July 3, 2012
Netlist revenue is hovering around EBITDA breakeven.
In the short term Netlist faces a steady decline in NVvault revenue (which comprise the bulk of it’s revenue base). These are from DDR2 NVvault memory modules used with Dell PERC RAID cards (for backing up RAID data in case of power outage).
DDR2 NVvault is being replaced by DDR3 NVvault (albeit at a much bigger scale according to Netlist). However that transition may introduce temporary dips in revenue.
So the Netlist earnings will reveal how much the NVvault revenue has declined, and if the new DDR3 NVvault replacement for Romley has started to take it’s place.
Memory for in-memory databases and SAP HANA
July 4, 2012
In addition, Netlist will show revenue from new products (that it has not sold in volume before):
– 16GB VLP RDIMM memory modules for IBM blade servers
– 16GB HyperCloud – used at 3 DPC on IBM x3650 M4 and HP DL360p and DL380p servers (for virtualization/data centers)
The 16GB VLP memory modules are 4-rank but are being touted by Netlist as being more reliable/robust, better performing and cheaper than the competitor products (which are based on more complex or more expensive DDP/QDP memory packages).
Netlist is claiming that it’s 16GB VLP RDIMM has “improved reliability/robustness” and “improved performance” compared to the competition.
VLP RDIMMs for virtualization on Blade Servers
July 6, 2012
Memory for VMware virtualization servers
July 5, 2012
The 16GB HyperCloud is the best solution for 3 DPC use (i.e. fully memory loaded) on the listed IBM/HP servers – for virtualization and data center use.
It will be interesting to see how much the 3 DPC space is going to contribute to HyperCloud revenue.
There is currently no revenue from 32GB HyperCloud – but once it becomes available, it will be the dominant choice of 32GB memory module trumping both RDIMM and LRDIMM solutions in performance, latency, price and IP issues.
For Netlist, it will be interesting to see how fast the DDR2 NVvault is declining, and how soon the DDR3 NVvault for Romley is going to ramp to take it’s place.
We will see whether 16GB VLP RDIMM memory modules are starting to ramp for IBM blade servers.
And what the size of the 3 DPC market (running 1333MHz at 3 DPC using 16GB memory modules) is from the 16GB HyperCloud volumes.